America’s Tornadoes are Evolving

In the last few weeks a flurry of tornadoes devastated many regions in the midwestern United States.These storm cells left scientists and the communities wondering why tornadoes seem to be increasing in frequency, devastation, and expansion across the United States. Peak tornado season lasts between March and June with approximately 70 percent of yearly storm cells being recorded during those months. However, as a warming climate continues to modify atmospheric conditions scientists are observing certain changes in the aspect of tornado patterns and basic formation. 

The 2023 season has already observed five times reported preliminary tornado reports than the average between 1990 and 2010. The month of January alone had an astounding 168 reports of tornado storm cell activities across the United States. 

While it is still too early to definitively relate climate change to increased tornado activities, scientists are able to correlate some adverse side effects to the subtle evolution of tornado size, span, and frequency as they continue to wreak havoc across the United States each year. 

Understanding Tornado Patterns

Tornadoes are a rapidly rotating column of air that extends from a thunderstorm cell system in the atmosphere to the ground. Tornadoes become visible as they form a condensation tunnel of wind that collects water droplets, dust, and debris. Some tornadoes have been recorded with wind speeds of more than 300 miles per hour, completely destroying anything in their path. These storm cells can be some of the most dangerous and destructive weather phenomena, responsible for countless deaths and economic damages each year. 

Tornadoes occur predominantly in the midwestern United States, but other areas of the world that experience them include Argentina, Bangladesh, and various reports on the other continents. The United States records about 1,200 tornadoes every year, however average reports overtime are somewhat inconsistent because official records only date back to 1950 and recording methods have changed overtime. 

The media often refers to an area of the United States known as tornado alley when discussing these deadly storm cells and their typical range across the United States.Although the region is a relatively common for tornado activities, the idea of “tornado alley” can be somewhat misleading.

Tornadoes have been reported in all fifty states, and many violent tornadoes have occurred outside of “tornado alley”. In the cooler months of the year tornadoes are more likely to affect the southeastern states, while the southern central plains regions are more at risk in the warmer months between May and June, and the northern plains during early summer months. 

Environmental Trends Affecting Tornadoes

To understand how environmental conditions may be affecting tornado storm cell development and resulting damages, meteorologists have been researching trends in their parent strom cell development. The scientists have been closely observing how changes in atmospheric humidity, temperature, and jet stream cycles may affect storm cell formation. 

Most tornadoes in the United States form from an uncommon supercell thunderstorm system which requires moist warm air to form close to the ground and a strong wind shear. The system requires a strong vertical wind shear caused by changing wind speeds and direction closer to the ground to draw the warm moisture up into the atmosphere. The air begins to spin cyclonically as it lifts off of the ground and continues to narrow and increase its cyclonic speed as it begins to form a menacing funnel cloud. The funnel and rotating system are the first indication of a potential tornado, but are only classified as such if they actually touch down on the ground. 

Factors Affecting Tornado Patterns 

• Increased heat and humidity in the atmosphere

• Modifications to the jet stream

• Larger and more frequent supercell thunderstorm systems

Since scientific data is fairly limited and inconsistent, scientists cannot definitively identify long term changes in the storm cells over time. They have described that we are currently in an “experimental” phase studying how tornadoes are evolving, and they can only hypothesize what the future will entail. 

The Future of Tornadoes

As warming surface trends, associated with ongoing climate changes, continue scientists have identified possible modifications to the patterns and formation of tornado storm systems as we have observed over the past 70 years. While long term predictions are not possible due to the lack of consistent and historical data, preliminary conclusions and warnings can be formulated. 

Meteorologists have already recorded an increase in the size and frequency of many supercell tornadoes, as damages have continued to surpass millions of dollars in economic losses each year. Continued expansion of industrial and residential development in at-risk regions has contributed to the increased death toll related to tornadoes in the past decades. Another factor is the increasing spread and range the storms are beginning to acquire, as unprepared regions are exposed to the severe risks associated with tornado development. 

Droughts and atmospheric conditions have resulted in fewer deadly tornadoes in states like Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Kansas, South Dakota, Iowa, and Nebraska. A dangerous tornado developed just last month in New Jersey leaving multiple people dead and more continue to appear in states outside the tornado alley region. The southeastern states have a long wind shear that forms the necessary conditions for tornadoes when combined with increased atmospheric temperature and humidity contributed by climate change. The necessary conditions may suggest the range of tornadoes will continue to expand to bordering states previously at a lower risk to these kinds of natural disasters. Meteorologists also suggest supercell thunderstorm formation will likely shift toward later winter and early spring months rather than summer and fall as seasonality is also affected by climate changes. 

There are many uncertainties associated with how and where tornadoes continue to evolve, but scientists are undoubtedly sure there will be continued increases in devastation, loss of life, and economic damages. The United States population has almost doubled since 1950 and increased development across tornado alley and the east coast, suggesting tornadoes are more likely to affect more people than ever before. 

Hurricane Ian’s Impact Lingers Amidst Climate Change Implications

Hurricane Ian quickly developed into one of the deadliest hurricanes to hit Florida since 1935, and one of the worst natural disasters in recent years for the United States. Damages from the hurricane are still being evaluated with early estimates totaling more than $60 billion USD alone in damages to infrastructure and properties. This large category 4 hurricane slammed into the Florida coast toward the end of September resulting in significant coastal damages, inland flooding, massive runoff, and large community displacements. Florida experiences many hurricanes each year, but it is now clear that the severity of the storms is increasing as they are exacerbated by the effects of climate change. 

Hurricanes are a natural aspect of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico geography, as conditions in late summer and early fall often generate cyclonic storm cells. A majority of south Florida lies at or below sea level putting many areas at increased risk for minor swells and ocean surges, regardless of storm activities. Florida has invested significant federal and state funds into coastal defense barriers like sea walls, sand dunes, foundation fortifications, and emergency aid response programs. These efforts seem to mitigate many damaging effects, but their effectiveness continues to wane as warming ocean temperatures increase the intensity of these Atlantic storm cells.

Climate change has a variety of negative effects on Earth, specifically intensifying the strength and frequency of destructive storm cell activities. Warmer coastal waters increase surface evaporation, rapidly accelerating hurricane wind speeds and the overall strength of the hurricane. Factors like warming climates, more intense storms, and continued development along the coast of at-risk regions like Florida have also increased the susceptibility of people and infrastructure to extensive storm damage. 

President Joe Biden addressed the nation after surveying the damages of the fierce storm, highlighting its similarities to many other significant natural disasters affecting other regions of the country. He indicated how climate change is responsible for many of the extensive damages caused by this storm, the fires in the midwest, and water shortages on the west coast. The increasing vulnerability of many regions affects more than the durability of the infrastructure, also implicates community health and long-term safety. 

As the aftermath of Hurricane Ian continues to be surveyed, it is clear this storm has impacted a multitude of resources, regions, and people across Florida. Many of Florida’s main waterways are now filled with contaminated pollution as a result of the upstream storm surge inundation and coastal runoff. Organic matter, chemical pollutants, and refuse washed off the land from torrential precipitation leading to additional negative environmental impacts. Environmental scientists suggest the pollution could damage aquatic ecosystems posing short-term dangers to human and resource health, while also subjecting these fragile ecosystems to additional long-term challenges. 
With the increasing intensity and frequency of storms like Hurricane Ian, similar events are likely to become more normal in the future. For at-risk regions, preparing the necessary infrastructure and response teams is vital to adequately handle estimated damages. These damages include factors impacting infrastructure, human health, environmental well-being, and long-term effects. Over the past decade, the United States has already had multiple examples of these effects as climate change continues to increase natural disaster intensities and frequencies.

Flooding Infrastructure and Climate Change

Over the course of this year, many areas of the United States have experienced severe flooding disasters, including places like Yellowstone, Kentucky, Denver, Death Valley, St. Louis, and Dallas. These areas experienced higher than average prolonged rainfall leading to an inundation of their already weak flood infrastructure, resulting in massive water overflow and significant economic losses. Widespread flooding affects local communities by leading to displacement, damage, and death. With the ongoing climate changes already causing strengthened and more frequent natural disasters, experts agree this flooding is also connected. 

Flooding does not only occur in these large regions because of the excess rain, although that is a significant factor. Many other factors are involved in severe flooding events, and the root of the problem is the predominant lack of adequate flooding infrastructure. Most urban areas use a combination of gutters, storm drains, and underground sewers to remove excess water from street surfaces and redirect it out of the city. These systems work well when there are periodic rain storms, characteristic of the region. However, their systems begin to malfunction when extensive amounts of precipitation inundate the region over a short period. Large influxes of water into the drainage infrastructure can rapidly overwhelm sewers resulting in backflow of water, pooling in large areas of these urban areas. The water can quickly become fast-moving water sources, wreaking havoc on communities and urban centers. 

Effects of flooding from past events like the 2005 Hurricane Katrina can still be seen across Louisiana today. Floods have enormous social consequences for impacted communities and individuals by threatening loss of human life, destroying property, damaging crops, deteriorating health, and leading to increased water-borne illnesses. The long-term effects of these floods can also disrupt clean water access, wastewater management, electricity, transportation, communication, and the loss of countless livelihoods. 

Another major factor affecting the outcome of these flooding events in urban areas is the lack of natural land that would otherwise effectively absorb and redirect excess water into surrounding areas. Most cities have surface areas encased in asphalt and concrete, preventing water from seeping into ground soil below. Impermeable surfaces in large cities increase their susceptibility to flooding when there are large influxes of rain, often making flooding worse.

Many technological and wealthy countries have been investing significantly in flood forecasting and preparation, inadvertently leaving their cities without many of the critical flood infrastructure systems that would protect them from these events. The resulting lack of development has led to many instances of significant loss of life regardless of the ample warnings because the areas were not physically able to manage such large influxes of water. 

The unfortunate reality faced by many areas across the United States is that these flood prevention infrastructures, like dams, reservoirs, and storm drains, were all designed decades ago and are completely outdated. Installed systems have failed to adequately handle the increasing large precipitation events over the last decade. 

New research into natural sources of flood protection found in flood plains, forests, and wetlands discovered that protecting and restoring these threatened regions could effectively protect nearby cities from a large quantity of flooding. These efforts, updating outdated infrastructure, and better allocating development land are all ways to combat future flooding events.