convergence consulting LLC

View Original

Earth’s Future, Now With 8 Billion Humans

Humanity has long been chasing that 8 billion number for our global population. As of November 2022, we have surpassed it with only increasing trends in sight. With such a large international population and growing numbers, what kind of new stressors will be placed on the planet? 

Global warming is already a direct indicator of influence on the planet. Humans have permanently changed how we interact with Earth's natural resources, but now it's clear that the reliance on those resources will be put to the utmost test. Populations will put immense pressure on nature, forcing humans to compete with other wildlife for water, food, and materials.

The problem not only arises with the total size of the global population but also with the rapid timeline to the astronomical number. Global population sizes previously always remained below 1 billion people on the planet at any given time until the late 18th century during the time of Napoleon. Rapid growth began to influence global numbers after the start of the Second World War when more than 1 billion people were added to the global population every 12 to 15 years. Key events spurred rapid growth over the last 300 years, including the industrial revolution, medical discoveries, technology, and global commerce trade. Currently, the human population is more than double what it was in 1970, doubling in just over 50 years.

Population analyses over the last few decades also draw attention to the uneven growth experienced worldwide. China and the USA are two places where population growth has been slowly leveling. At the same time, low-income regions like Sub-Saharan Africa and India are responsible for approximately 70 percent of the world’s population increases. There are difficulties to be faced in both scenarios because with leveling population growth, fewer individuals will support the enormous economies, and exponential growth in developing countries will continue to exacerbate already strained systems. The other caveat to increased global numbers is its likelihood to influence mass migrations and conflicts and further jeopardize at-risk environments. 

Experts are forecasting slower growth trends in the future, even though the population trends have been increasing exponentially. Their conclusions draw from increased knowledge and dispersal of contraceptives and safe sex to lower-income countries. Other factors influencing level growth trends include increased women’s rights worldwide, younger generations waiting to have families, and economic pressures driving living rates through the roof for most high-income countries. These forecasts are good news for slowing global population growth. Still, the world will likely not observe decreases until the latter half of this century, as fertility rates and population deaths will be important contributors to change. 
The urgency to allocate new green energy resources before it is too late is becoming increasingly evident. Experts agree that installing sustainable energy resources for low-income countries will greatly decrease their carbon emissions by supporting increasing population demands. Other changes must also be made in high-income countries responsible for more than double the carbon emissions released by the poorest half of the world.